YTD 6-2
OK normally I do a monster writeup with analysis on both sides of the ball (and the majority of my plays this season have been CUSA plays...all winners) BUT tonight there isn't much to say other than PLAY ON HOUSTON.
The Cougs are a great bet in this spot. OK yeah they haven't played a whole lot of teams other than Michigan who slaughtered them after starting slow at in Ann Arbor BUT when you look at their numbers they show great balance. If you look at the first down breakdowns you will see lines like 13 run and 9 pass vs Rice (OK it's Rice we know they suck but this is a crosstown rival for the Cougs) and 12 run and 12 pass vs Mississippi State (again they suck but for a freshman QB to torch anyone for 321 yards and 4 TD's with 0 INT's says something about the offense). Keep in mind everyone keeps going on and raving about freshman standout QB Kevin Kolb who is very smart with the football (1 INT on the season) so for me this balance is big. The Cougs have had plenty of rest after such a big offensive performance and have been working on ECU for like 9 days. IMHO most teams need about 2 days to get ready for the Pirates because they are awful.
As far as ECU goes it should tell you something when the university is running about 2 million promotions to try to get people in the stands. You can search for my thread I wrote earlier this year when ECU went to Cincy and I was all over the Bearcats -8. I think the final was in the ballpark of 40-3. This team has been outscored 160-29 in 4 games with the one home game a 48-7 loss to WVA. They turn the ball over and are having a brutal time adjusting to new coach John Thomson's new system. They did get the majority of their points in their last game at Wake Forest so it is getting better (keep in mind this team wil play harder vs Carolina teams for obvious reasons). To put this one in persepctive it is a sandwich game between 2 Carolina teams with the next one (HOME vs North Carolina) being sold out. If they are begging people to go to this one you can be sure the Pirates will have very little effort to give here. They are coming off the Wake game as well and I don't see them being focused at all.
The first half is very enticing (probably more so than game line). Houston in the first half has outscored its opponents 59-14 in its 3 wins (ok Michigan had a 22-0 edge at half but don't compare apples to oranges). ECU on the other hand..well...outscored 82-3 in all 4 games (they actually played Miami tough only down 17-0 at half but come on do you really think Miami was focused).
Enough rambling...I will play the first half and the line because even with Houston's tendency to play poorly in the 2nd half I can't see any reason to believe the Pirates will play well here. They're looking to UNC on 10/11 and Houston has had a lot of time to prepare for these Pirates. Houston is the play.
HOUSTON -.5 (1ST HALF)
HOUSTON -1.5 (GAME)
[This message was edited by sportsbet on September 30, 2003 at 06:51 PM.]
OK normally I do a monster writeup with analysis on both sides of the ball (and the majority of my plays this season have been CUSA plays...all winners) BUT tonight there isn't much to say other than PLAY ON HOUSTON.
The Cougs are a great bet in this spot. OK yeah they haven't played a whole lot of teams other than Michigan who slaughtered them after starting slow at in Ann Arbor BUT when you look at their numbers they show great balance. If you look at the first down breakdowns you will see lines like 13 run and 9 pass vs Rice (OK it's Rice we know they suck but this is a crosstown rival for the Cougs) and 12 run and 12 pass vs Mississippi State (again they suck but for a freshman QB to torch anyone for 321 yards and 4 TD's with 0 INT's says something about the offense). Keep in mind everyone keeps going on and raving about freshman standout QB Kevin Kolb who is very smart with the football (1 INT on the season) so for me this balance is big. The Cougs have had plenty of rest after such a big offensive performance and have been working on ECU for like 9 days. IMHO most teams need about 2 days to get ready for the Pirates because they are awful.
As far as ECU goes it should tell you something when the university is running about 2 million promotions to try to get people in the stands. You can search for my thread I wrote earlier this year when ECU went to Cincy and I was all over the Bearcats -8. I think the final was in the ballpark of 40-3. This team has been outscored 160-29 in 4 games with the one home game a 48-7 loss to WVA. They turn the ball over and are having a brutal time adjusting to new coach John Thomson's new system. They did get the majority of their points in their last game at Wake Forest so it is getting better (keep in mind this team wil play harder vs Carolina teams for obvious reasons). To put this one in persepctive it is a sandwich game between 2 Carolina teams with the next one (HOME vs North Carolina) being sold out. If they are begging people to go to this one you can be sure the Pirates will have very little effort to give here. They are coming off the Wake game as well and I don't see them being focused at all.
The first half is very enticing (probably more so than game line). Houston in the first half has outscored its opponents 59-14 in its 3 wins (ok Michigan had a 22-0 edge at half but don't compare apples to oranges). ECU on the other hand..well...outscored 82-3 in all 4 games (they actually played Miami tough only down 17-0 at half but come on do you really think Miami was focused).
Enough rambling...I will play the first half and the line because even with Houston's tendency to play poorly in the 2nd half I can't see any reason to believe the Pirates will play well here. They're looking to UNC on 10/11 and Houston has had a lot of time to prepare for these Pirates. Houston is the play.
HOUSTON -.5 (1ST HALF)
HOUSTON -1.5 (GAME)
[This message was edited by sportsbet on September 30, 2003 at 06:51 PM.]
